Carceral hope: Life sentences, ageing, and the ethics of possibility 

In this expert blog for Penal Reform International, Dr Marion Vannier and Dr Helen Gair from the University of Manchester explore how hope is imagined, experienced and transformed within the context of life imprisonment. Drawing on early findings from the UKRI-funded ‘Hope Project’, they reflect on the ethical and institutional dimensions of hope for older people serving life sentences, and on the implications of sustaining hope in the absence of realistic prospects for release.

The timeliness of hope  

Hope has become central in debates on life imprisonment in Europe. The European Court of Human Rights introduced a ‘right to hope,’ (see Trotter 2022; Vannier 2025), vested in the realistic chance of review and release to assess life sentences, and emphasising the fundamental human capacity change (Vinter and Others v. the United Kingdom (2013); Matiošaitis and Others v. Lithuania (2017); Sanchez-Sanchez v. the United Kingdom (2022)). In academia, and criminology specifically, there is a growing interest for hope too, from the design of prison architecture intended to foster dignity and rehabilitation (Jewkes 2024), to probation practices that emphasise future-oriented, strengths-based support (Philips et al. 2025).  

Hope has also become a predominant feature in political discourse to build trust in the potential for positive change: British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has described his Project Hope, as ‘politics that treads lighter’, while in the US, hope has resurfaced amidst the political chaos following President Trump’s re-election, offering a counterpoint to polarisation and uncertainty. Religious and cultural articulations of hope have similarly shaped contemporary discourse. Pope Francis called for a “Pilgrimage of Hope” in 2025, framing hope as collective, radical and redemptive. Across legal, political, and spiritual contexts, hope thus emerges as a transformative force, for collective justice and political stability, and individual human flourishing. 

Carceral spaces with no hope on the rise  

Conditions that reduce hope for release are becoming more common worldwide. In the USA, the number of prisoners serving life without parole, the most severe form of life sentence (Vannier 2021), has risen dramatically since 2000. Around 1 in 6 prisoners in the USA were serving a life sentence in 2024 (Nellis and Barry 2025). In the UK, the use of life sentences has also risen, with England and Wales accounting for 43% of all life-sentenced prisoners in 52 European jurisdictions, excluding Turkey (Prison Reform Trust 2025). The minimum terms UK prisoners must complete before they become eligible for parole has increased from an average of 12.5 years in 2003 to 21 years in 2021 (Prison Reform Trust, 2025).  

The global ageing phenomenon raises new concerns about the duration and severity of long sentences more generally (Penal Reform International 2024; Vannier & Nellis 2023). It also challenges what older prisoners can realistically hope for, when the length of their sentence means they are unlikely to be eligible for release within their lifetime. Together, the ageing of the prison population and the increasing use of life sentences feed into an overwhelming proliferation of carceral spaces where hope is difficult to maintain. 

The Hope Project  

The UKRI-funded project, In Search of Hope: The Case of Older Life-Sentenced Prisoners in England and Wales (the “Hope Project”) investigates the differences between hope as it is imagined in law, and as it is experienced and practised in prison. It explores how hope is experienced by older life-sentenced people in prison, for whom the prospect of release becomes increasingly remote. Their situation prompts reflection on the meaning and value of hope. Is it an emotion, a moral virtue, or a state of mind directed toward an uncertain future or a way of living through imprisonment (see Trotter 2024). Within prison, hope may take on new forms: it can serve as a coping mechanism, a tool of resistance, or a strategy for managing despair in the absence of any realistic prospect of release. The project also seeks to measure hope as sentences progress and as people in prison age. By quantifying these experiences, we hope to understand how hope operates in the most vulnerable of circumstances.  

The research engages with deeper deontological questions about prison work and the treatment of older prisoners. If hope is important, then we must consider whether it can be cultivated or sustained through prison practices, or whether it can be neglected or even destroyed. Ethical questions also emerge around the research itself: what does it mean to study hope in settings where the likelihood of change or release is minimal? Can we ethically engage with such experiences without reinforcing despair? Ultimately, the Hope Project frames hope not only as an individual emotion, but also as a broader institutional, ethical, and societal issue. 

Our early findings so far  

1. Hope for release? – Our findings show that, while the right to hope as introduced by the European Human Rights court seems to be vested in the possibility of release, in practice, hope takes on a very different form and source in prison (see recently Vannier 2025). Many detainees described hope as having opportunities to participate in meaningful activities. They also expressed hoping for recognition and humanity. They also discussed hope in the context of feeling safe and being able to enjoy a quiet life within prison (forthcoming, Vannier & Gair). Themes of giving something back, as well as improving their physical and mental health were also prevalent. These findings not only signal a clear disjuncture between ‘hope as law’, ‘hope as practice,’ and ‘hope as a lived experience.’ It also illustrates a distinct ‘carceral hope.’ (forthcoming, Vannier & Gair). 

1. Moving beyond the binary hope/hopelessness – From what we have seen, there are multiple forms of hope present in prison, and these hopes were felt in varying degrees and at different times. It is therefore important to consider hope not as a constant entity, and to move beyond the traditional and reductive binary hope versus hopelessness. Even though many of the people in prison involved in the study perceived themselves as having a slim, sometimes non-existent, likelihood of being released, they were able to find seeds of hope (forthcoming, Vannier & Gair). 

1. Dashed hopes – The study has also uncovered many testimonies of hopes being dashed in prison. Stories of cancelled meetings, being denied parole, violent incidents and the monotony of prison life coexisted with glimmers of positive thoughts and feelings. There was a commonly held belief that the prison as an institution removed hope systematically, and that the individual was left solely responsible for their personal fulfilment (on Hope as practice, see Vannier 2025). It is therefore important to consider the role of institutions and law in both bolstering and removing hope. 

1. Ageing and hope – The intersection of hope with ageing shifts the traditional future-orientation of hope. As people age, their physical limitations and declining health intersect with their long sentences, further narrowing horizons of possibility. This alters not just what is hoped for, but also where the hope time-compass is situated. Hope becomes entangled with anxieties about dying in prison or being forgotten, complicating aspirations for life after release. Rather than being future-oriented, hope becomes anchored in the present, focusing on day-to-day human connections, and meaning-making activities. Ageing reframes hope as something immediate and relational, instead of individual and deferred. 

1. The dynamics of hope – Rather than a linear or cumulative form of experience, hope in prison fluctuates like a broken pendulum; it surges at times and collapses at others. It is influenced by external events (e.g., parole decisions, health changes, staff interactions) and internal states (mood, memory, sense of fulfilment). Routines can bring flickers of hope, while relationships and interactions can help it spike but only to crash again. Understanding this ebb and flow is vital for appreciating how hope evolves over the course of a life sentence. 

What’s next? 

The Hope project has just over 1.5 years to go. As we enter this next phase, we have been commissioned to produce four policy reports aimed at informing and supporting policymakers. We also have several academic publications either recently released or forthcoming. Looking ahead, we will be organising a webinar in 2026 to share emerging findings and foster dialogue across disciplines. A final conference is also planned for the end of the project, bringing together researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to reflect on lessons learned and future directions. 

To get in touch, please contact: 

• Marion Vannier (PI): marion.vannier@manchester.ac.uk 

• Helen Gair (RA): helen.gair@manchester.ac.uk