The global prison population continues to increase. Taking into account estimated prison populations in countries for which no official figures are available, new estimates from the World Prison Brief reveal there are more than 11.5 million people in prison globally. Of this, more than 2 million are in the US, at least 1.69 million in China and 811,000 in Brazil. In terms of prison population rates, the US remains the country with the highest rate (629 per 100,000), followed by Rwanda (580), Turkmenistan (576), El Salvador (564) and Cuba (510). To put this into context, globally 140 people per 100,000 are in prison on any given day.
There is considerable regional variance in the use of imprisonment. Since 2000, the prison population has increased by 82% in Oceania, 43% in the Americas (200% in South America) and 32% in Africa. In contrast, in Europe, prison populations have decreased by 27% since 2000. This is mainly due to a sharp prison population decline in Russia (by 56%) and in Eastern Europe (by 49%). Globally, since 2000, there has been an increase of 24%, a rate slightly less than the estimated growth in the world’s general population.
Steep increases have been seen in some places. In India, the prison population has risen 14% across 24 of the country’s 28 states (counting for almost 84% of the national prison population) in the last two years, due to increased arrests, delays in hearing of bail applications, and suspension of regular court proceedings. In Turkey, over the past 10 years the prison population has increased by 130%, climbing from 128,000 in 2010 to 295,000 at the end of 2021. Conversely, statistics from 2021 showed that Switzerland was imprisoning the lowest number of people in a decade, with an 8.4% decrease between 2020 and 2021, possibly linked to pandemic-related restrictions.
Pre-trial detainees continue to constitute a significant share of the prison population in most jurisdictions; around one in three people in prison globally is held without having been convicted or sentenced. Despite tracking pre-trial detention rates as an indicator of progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 16, the global share of unsentenced detainees has remained stable since 2000 – ranging between 29% and 31% of the global prison population. At the regional level, there is considerable variation in trends. Over the last two decades, Africa has seen the largest decrease in the share of unsentenced people in prison, from 45% in 2000 to 34% in 2019, although along with Asia the region continues to have the highest share of people in pre-trial detention globally. Over the same period the proportion of pre-trial detainees increased in Oceania from 20% to 32%.
Some of the fluctuation of prison population numbers over the last two years is undoubtedly related to the pandemic, either directly, through large-scale exceptional release measures to decongest prisons, or indirectly, through changes in the nature of offences being committed or a slowing down of the judicial system and subsequent efforts to clear court backlogs. Now, more than two years on from the start of the pandemic, it is clear that COVID-19 has not resulted in an overall reduction in the global prison population.
Over the course of the pandemic, some countries have seen lower imprisonment rates due to courts not operating as usual, resulting in fewer new admissions to prisons. Even now, many countries’ courts are still struggling with a considerable backlog of cases, which has a significant impact on the criminal justice system. For example, in Ireland, prisons dealing with active lockdowns are not accepting new admissions as staff are not able to escort people in prison to court, which has compounded court delays. In New Zealand, nearly 20,000 court appointments had been postponed because of COVID-19-related restrictions.
Other countries are seeing the opposite, with prison numbers rising again. In some places, this is linked to changes in court operations, such as in Nigeria, where the backlog of court cases has led to a huge proportion of people held in pre-trial detention. There are now 50,000 people awaiting trial, out of a prison population of 70,000. A study in the US found that – following initial reductions of pre-trial detainees held in jails in the first months of the pandemic – between May 2020 and February 2021 the populations of 83% of jails sampled increased; by December 2021, 28% had higher populations than before the pandemic. Data suggests most of the population drops during the pandemic are due to reduced prison admissions rather than dedicated decongestion efforts, and early reforms to mitigate COVID-19 have been largely abandoned.
The latest data shows that prison systems in 121 countries and territories are operating above their official capacity, including 13 with levels higher than 250%. Out of these 11 countries, five are in Africa and three are in Asia – the two regions that have the largest share of pre-trial detainees globally. The European Committee for the Prevention of Torture (CPT) has found persistent overcrowding in many prison systems in the region, especially in pre-trial detention facilities and, if not across the entire prison system, at least in particular prisons, parts of prisons or cells. To tackle the problem, the CPT has called on European states to set a strict limit for the number of people detained in each facility to guarantee the minimum standard in terms of living space, as well as increased use of alternatives to detention.
The large-scale release measures or pardons implemented recently have mostly been in response to the pandemic and to alleviate overcrowding. In Ecuador, the President pardoned people sentenced for minor traffic offences and people in prison with terminal illnesses to alleviate overcrowding and related unrest, although it remains unclear how many benefitted from this pardon (see Security and violence). In February 2022, alongside a new public policy on prison conditions, the President ordered the release of some 5,000 people as part of an early release programme. In India, the state of Uttar Pradesh extended special parole to 2,500 people to alleviate overcrowding, as the prison population keeps rising. China has implemented sweeping bail reform which reduced the proportion of pre-trial detainees to 53% over the last year, down from 66% in 2019 and almost 95% between 1990 and 2009.
While information on the impact of COVID-19-related prison release measures on recidivism rates is still scarce, data available in Europe indicates that they have not resulted in any significant increase in recidivism. For example, in Belgium, of the 356 people who were granted early provisional release only ten committed a new (minor) offence. In Ireland, out of approximately 400 people released during the pandemic, 6% were recalled to prison and compliance rates with early release conditions were above 85%. In Portugal, 120 of the 906 individuals released on extraordinary license had their licenses revoked due to non-compliance with conditions, and only 235 of the 1,945 people released under extraordinary measures were recalled to prison for committing new offences.